The Ghost of Snapped Shot

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Lebanon: Who is the Puppetmaster?

Charles Malik provides the in-depth analysis of the scuttlebutt, and has made an attempt to piece the puzzle together:

In a conversation with a PSP activist, we put the rumors we heard together, and found that there might be greater plans involved in these recent clashes. This is speculation, but it seems like there is a specific pre-constructed narrative being followed, and the weak link in the chain providing most of the information are SSNP guys.

It seems like Hezbollah's putsch is part of a larger plan to legitimate a Syrian return to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, Amal, and the SSNP tried to start clashes with the Sunni Future Movement and Druze PSP. Hezbollah assumed they would win after a week or so of clashes in Beirut and then dictate the narrative, claiming that they "liberated" the area. They followed their plan to take over all of Beirut, and then humiliate Hariri at the end by storming his compound. The only problem was that the March 14 parties refused to fight back and took away the clashes Hezbollah needed to legitimate their attacks ex post facto.

The plan was always to give territory back to the Army, but that is because the Army is merely a national symbol and placate the feelings of the community, while Hezbollah would remain in charge.

The SSNP would be the vanguard, placing posters of Syrian President Bashar al Assad everywhere. Hezbollah would be the enforcers, and try to keep some level of legitimacy by claiming that the SSNP guys are the Syria supporters. Amal and Berri would be the negotiating partner.

Hezbollah started clashes in the Bekaa simultaneous to the clashes in Beirut to make it seem like the fighting is national, but also to begin the process of providing Syria with an excuse to re-enter the country.

Charles has much more, so be sure to click over and check it out.


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